Schumer's take on Senate races

not anything shocking but interesting enough to post:

Incumbents
He is comfortable with where all vulnerable D's are at this point

Challengers:
MT Senate - very excited about John Morrison, said Burns continues to be vulnerable as a result of his ties to Jack Abramoff

MO Senate - said that Claire McCaskill is running a great campaign, using the stem cell issue very effectively as Talent has flip-flopped on the issue, she has never been behind in the polls, is from rural MO where she will not win but needs to keep Talent below 60%

RI Senate - Chafee continues to get beat up by Laffey, will be forced to spend money for a late primary in Sept. while Whitehouse has a clear path to the primary

PA Senate - Santorum and 527's on his behalf have already spent $3 million and he is not moving in the polls, cointinues to be down by as many as 13 pts, Casey is doing a good job of not attracting attention, keeping the focus on Santorum, Schumer said it's our race to lose but that Casey still needs money since Santorum maintains a fairly large fundraising advantage ($9 M vs. $4.5 for Casey), interestingly Schumer said that Kate Michelman (who considered running against Casey in the primary) just wrote an op-ed in the Philly Inquirer announcing her support for Casey and urging other pro-choice women to support him

OH Senate - Sherrod Brown ahead by 3-4 pts even though he only has 45% statewide name ID, needs money, very liberal but great in front of different audiences including investment bankers that he won over in a solicitation mtg

AZ Senate - out of all the challenger races believes this is the most difficult one since Kyl is less vulnerable than other GOP incumbents, Pederson is up with ads attacking Kyl on immigration, behind by less than 10 pts

VA Senate - waiting for the outcome of primary, thinks it's a long-shot but also thinks that whichever Dem emerges will force Allen to spend money/time in VA as opposed to running for president


Open Seats:
TN Senate - Harold Ford is a great candidate, Schumer said that at first he wasn't convinced that Ford's early ad buys were the smart strategy, but has become a convert, mentioned Ford was the first candidate to talk about the port security issue in an ad, believes they are effective.

MN Senate - Klobuchar is a dream candidate, running a great race, slightly behind Kennedy on money

MD Senate - tricky state but a very blue state with a Sept. primary, DSCC staying neutral but indicated they may get involved close to the primary, praised both Cardin and Mfume, said Steele has attraction with the African-American community but the attraction dissipates once they find out he is a Bush man since Bush's numbers are even lower in MD than nationally